By Artau Pascual
In the last two years, the basketball landscape has changed a lot. The amount of European players who have landed in College Basketball is higher than ever, and we can all agree that the level of the players who have picked the route is also higher than it has ever been. While back in the days, most of the European players who chose CBB used to have a vocational reason behind, right now, there are many other elements that play a role in this decision.
However, things are changing so quickly that there is no point in trying to figure out a final picture given the never-ending development trend we are witnessing. All these changes are fueled by one major element: with the money boost College Basketball has received, players now have something to deliver once they put their feet on a Campus, and basically every coaching staff is in danger of being in a hot seat if results don’t go as expected. If College Basketball had never been precisely a place to specifically improve players, now it can be considered like it less than ever. Money means a short path for immediate results, but it also reduces drastically the margin of error programs have.
We can split the players that lean towards the NCAA option into three big groups: the Draft-caliber prospects that are going to get the mix of money, exposure and playing time to build their cases; the unproven players who look for a specific long-term plan, envisioning College as the place where they will be able to work on their bodies and gather playing time sooner than in Europe and, finally, the newest and truly game-changing group, formed by those players who already have a trajectory in Europe but will have significantly more value in the College Basketball short-term, early impact demands than in the European environment. Each of these three groups goes through some different circumstances that we can break down.
For these players, there’s no secret. It’s easier to find a way for them to flourish, since they are so highly touted for some reason. Both could have played in Europe and strengthened their cases anyway: Egor Demin could have found a team that gave him the platform to showcase his talent in a less demanding league from a physical standpoint, and Kasparas Jakucionis, just because of being a player with an incredibly safe floor, could have already been a backup Guard for mid-to-low level Euroleague team with true impact in the game. BYU and Illinois were willing to invest usage and time on them, and they have accomplished the expectations by being main ball-handlers for two teams that have made it to the postseason with both players being relevant core pieces.
There’s not much to say here: there are some College programs that have already demonstrated that they can bring in European players, put them at the top of their hierarchy -which uses to be an issue for European players who move to CBB- and solidify their cases as long as they deliver from the competitive standpoint. When a program gets the commitment of a player who meets the described traits, the said program commits to granting them certain levels of role, usage and importance in their plans, because they are also seen as a way to sell to the future prospects how well they work with potential overseas Draft picks. As said before, being in the US grants a level of exposure and attention that would be more difficult to find in Europe, and this plays a significant role for all prospects when they try to build their NBA cases. There will be more and more TOP-level European prospects who will pick this path, and if they choose the right spot, they will have the chance to succeed because we are talking about a different kind of player.
It’s important to point that, for these players, even though the NIL will be significant, it’s not the main reason for the decision, given that their whole picture suggests that the biggest income in their careers awaits in the next step. So, in this case, it’s all about making the best decision in all the other areas.
This type of short-term mentality described previously has made some shifts in how the bidirectional relationship between players and programs is seen. College programs do no longer see the players that can run a full cycle with them as their mine investment targets: they look for those that can help them at winning right away. That’s why the market of 20-22 year-old players, those that generally have a hard time finding good spots in Europe offseason after offseason or look for loans during Winter because of how difficult it is for a young player to play consistently, are a great target for programs with winning aspirations. The economic value they have for a College program because of what they can provide is way higher than the one they will have in Europe -also the budgets are different-, and the amount of playing time and attention they will gather is also vastly different. That’s the perfect deal for both parts, and even more if we consider that it’s easy to agree on building the deal as a one-year attachment that will place the player back in the market the following Summer, either to pursue another route or to stay in the same one.
A perfect example of a player who has been a big winner in the 2024/25 is Tomislav Ivisic, who has been able to shine as the Illinois starting Big man. Ivisic entered the season without the four years of eligibility, and sharing positional duties with an NBA Draft prospect with a completely opposite repertoire as Morez Johnson. Zvonimir’s brother has gone through a huge season: on the one hand, he had already secured an important bag at the start of the season, with an NIL compensation which was significantly higher than the income he was generating when he played for SC Derby and, most likely, higher than any other offer he could have earned in a near future. On the other hand, Ivisic’s stock has improved a lot as he has left behind some red flags that were very evident in Europe: added to the conditioning and body improvements he’s made at Illinois, he has established himself as a player who can be fairly productive in back to the basket situations, a solid passer and a very reliable floor-stretcher against American competition. There are still some important defensive and mobility concerns around him that won’t vanish, but his NBA Draft candidature is in a better spot than the one he would have had if he had stayed in Europe. So, for these players, a move to a league where their readiness and go-to skills can have an impact, is also a great way to revamp their stock. And no one cares how many years of eligibility Ivisic has because, after all, he has already found a key money window for his career in College Basketball.
We have already seen which are the names that have generated more buzz so far this year: Sananda Fru (2003), Elias Rapieque (2004), Harun Zrno (2004) or Jacob Patrick (2003) are hot names on the radar of many programs, and some others such as Davide Casarin (2003), Andrija Jelavic (2004) or Malick Kordel (2004) have also been gaining some traction, just to mention a few examples. There is a mix of reasons why some of them could have the next Tomislav Ivisic type of story, but for the majority of the players mentioned, we are talking about cases that will likely have the best money window of their career during the years their College cycle lasts if they end up heading in this direction. The reasons, impact and readiness, have been largely described already. At the end of the day, College Basketball has turned into an incredibly good release valve for European agents, who will avoid facing the need of placing some of their clients in teams that can’t guarantee them a good enough spot while they provide them a better economic situation and, because of the rules, they also get a better-looking compensation for the deal. Understanding the money window of the players will be a difference-making quality for people around them in the upcoming years, as well as it already is right now. For some others in the list, having the type of trajectory that names such as Matej Bosnjak, Fedor Zugic, Noah Bolanga or Marino Dubravcic can also be more than enough.
And this leads us to the last part of this article.
Entering College basketball as soon as you are eligible is just an option now. CBB is now a veteran competition led by ready-made players. Times have changed and players are not only exiting the league later, but in most of the cases they are also entering it later. High School recruitment is in a bad spot as of right now, aside of the most coveted stars with high-end NBA upside, because they can’t provide the experience and competitive guarantees that the league demands. This also affects the same-age European players: even though the level of basketball might be more demanding and competitive in the European youth system than in the US regular schedule, true Freshmen will still have a hard time placing themselves in the NCAA. Proven players will always be safer and more appealing.
Last year, most of the teams were thinking about how to stop the exodus of the talent that they developed in their systems with little-to-no reward. The team that played their cards in the best way was Real Madrid, that could pay for the buyout of a player for the first team with the money that they got for Egor Demin. Most of the teams weren’t able to understand the situation with enough margin and lost their players for small fees or for nothing. This Summer, things will be different for them: we can expect a fewer amount of true Freshmen heading to that type of program because the level of the true Freshmen group is worse than in the last two years and, also, because the programs will prefer signing readier contributors. It will be curious to see, given the short-term nature of most of the contracts in Europe, how it does translate in the income European teams get for those young players and, more importantly, how long it does take for them to build a contingency plan for the foreseeable situation. Maybe some of these clubs will feel the need to attach the 20-22 year-old players in longer contracts with them, because those are the ones that will be more targeted and, easily, they could leave them without a compensation.
As of right now, it looks like the 2025 class will be highlighted by bigs. Size is one of the qualities for which College programs are more willing to pay. Players such as Hannes Steinbach or Aleksa Dimitrijevic will be two of the first to announce their commitments to HM programs that will give them prominent roles and significant NIL. Bigs are the hardest players to get in the US. Regarding Guards, we will need to wait: the most logical thing would be that the money for Guards goes for proven players that are already in the Transfer Portal, given that the skills that programs look for when they build their teams are similar to the ones NBA guards -in general, American guards- have: burst, ISO scoring and shooting gravity. It’s harder to find this in Europe. This is, most likely, the position that will be most difficult to deal with, and likely we will see more cases of players who commit to levels below the one projected for them because of the lack of suitors.
So, and it will be a trend for the next years, we should expect that the commitment of players in their first year of College eligibility will take a lot longer than usual. This will make FIBA Summer Events -such as FIBA U18 Championship- a lot more important for players who can be last-minute recruits and will test the patience of agents, advisors and players regarding important things such as the enrollment process or eyeing how the start of the season approaches and the player doesn’t still have a commitment to a program while they rejected the proposals of European teams. In numerous instances, it will turn into an uncomfortable race against the clock, without forgetting that last-minute academic enrollments are tiring and risky.
College Basketball is not for everyone
That’s something that is essential to keep in mind for the times to come. The raise of College basketball has also increased the danger of sending a player to a wrong spot. Some agents and decision-makers close to the players are clueless about what they do, and they associate College Basketball to NIL. It’s common to see players who go to the wrong conference or play for coaches that have not seen them enough or just don’t mesh well with their identity because of the lack of knowledge of the entourage. While it’s true that for some players the best money window of their career will take place during the years of College eligibility, for many others it will be a dangerous way to put in risk the career of the player because of picking a wrong conference or doing a wrong evaluation on the needs of the player. We have already seen some cases like that in the last two years: players who could have been making a lot more money or even turn into Draft candidates in their first year if they had made the right decision, but ended up picking options that harmed their stock and also their best-case scenario projected income. As said at the start of the article, College Basketball usually isn’t a way to develop a basketball player. You play when you are ready, and you won’t step on the court if you are not a valuable contributor or if you don’t fit in the conference you are competing in.
The priority for an 18-22 year-old player has to be playing and being able to practice regularly. At least one of these two things will be hard to get from now on for the ones in the mentioned circumstances who enter the CBB circuit. Now more than ever, there is no need to play College basketball from the first year of eligibility, and obviously, it’s not necessary neither to have the entire four years available to head to the US. We could even say that, most of the time, given the yearly budgets, programs will prefer short-term deals instead of committing to a player in the big picture.
Maybe, as a player, your time to enter College Basketball is not as an 18-year-old player with plenty of room for improvement, but as one a bit older who has already worked on his body
In the last two years, the basketball landscape has changed a lot. The amount of European players who have landed in College Basketball is higher than ever, and we can all agree that the level of the players who have picked the route is also higher than it has ever been. While back in the days, most of the European players who chose CBB used to have a vocational reason behind, right now, there are many other elements that play a role in this decision.
However, things are changing so quickly that there is no point in trying to figure out a final picture given the never-ending development trend we are witnessing. All these changes are fueled by one major element: with the money boost College Basketball has received, players now have something to deliver once they put their feet on a Campus, and basically every coaching staff is in danger of being in a hot seat if results don’t go as expected. If College Basketball had never been precisely a place to specifically improve players, now it can be considered like it less than ever. Money means a short path for immediate results, but it also reduces drastically the margin of error programs have.
We can split the players that lean towards the NCAA option into three big groups: the Draft-caliber prospects that are going to get the mix of money, exposure and playing time to build their cases; the unproven players who look for a specific long-term plan, envisioning College as the place where they will be able to work on their bodies and gather playing time sooner than in Europe and, finally, the newest and truly game-changing group, formed by those players who already have a trajectory in Europe but will have significantly more value in the College Basketball short-term, early impact demands than in the European environment. Each of these three groups goes through some different circumstances that we can break down.
- Working for an NBA case: Egor Demin and Kasparas Jakucionis’ logic
For these players, there’s no secret. It’s easier to find a way for them to flourish, since they are so highly touted for some reason. Both could have played in Europe and strengthened their cases anyway: Egor Demin could have found a team that gave him the platform to showcase his talent in a less demanding league from a physical standpoint, and Kasparas Jakucionis, just because of being a player with an incredibly safe floor, could have already been a backup Guard for mid-to-low level Euroleague team with true impact in the game. BYU and Illinois were willing to invest usage and time on them, and they have accomplished the expectations by being main ball-handlers for two teams that have made it to the postseason with both players being relevant core pieces.
There’s not much to say here: there are some College programs that have already demonstrated that they can bring in European players, put them at the top of their hierarchy -which uses to be an issue for European players who move to CBB- and solidify their cases as long as they deliver from the competitive standpoint. When a program gets the commitment of a player who meets the described traits, the said program commits to granting them certain levels of role, usage and importance in their plans, because they are also seen as a way to sell to the future prospects how well they work with potential overseas Draft picks. As said before, being in the US grants a level of exposure and attention that would be more difficult to find in Europe, and this plays a significant role for all prospects when they try to build their NBA cases. There will be more and more TOP-level European prospects who will pick this path, and if they choose the right spot, they will have the chance to succeed because we are talking about a different kind of player.
It’s important to point that, for these players, even though the NIL will be significant, it’s not the main reason for the decision, given that their whole picture suggests that the biggest income in their careers awaits in the next step. So, in this case, it’s all about making the best decision in all the other areas.
- Veteran, proven players: money windows and the four-year matter
This type of short-term mentality described previously has made some shifts in how the bidirectional relationship between players and programs is seen. College programs do no longer see the players that can run a full cycle with them as their mine investment targets: they look for those that can help them at winning right away. That’s why the market of 20-22 year-old players, those that generally have a hard time finding good spots in Europe offseason after offseason or look for loans during Winter because of how difficult it is for a young player to play consistently, are a great target for programs with winning aspirations. The economic value they have for a College program because of what they can provide is way higher than the one they will have in Europe -also the budgets are different-, and the amount of playing time and attention they will gather is also vastly different. That’s the perfect deal for both parts, and even more if we consider that it’s easy to agree on building the deal as a one-year attachment that will place the player back in the market the following Summer, either to pursue another route or to stay in the same one.
A perfect example of a player who has been a big winner in the 2024/25 is Tomislav Ivisic, who has been able to shine as the Illinois starting Big man. Ivisic entered the season without the four years of eligibility, and sharing positional duties with an NBA Draft prospect with a completely opposite repertoire as Morez Johnson. Zvonimir’s brother has gone through a huge season: on the one hand, he had already secured an important bag at the start of the season, with an NIL compensation which was significantly higher than the income he was generating when he played for SC Derby and, most likely, higher than any other offer he could have earned in a near future. On the other hand, Ivisic’s stock has improved a lot as he has left behind some red flags that were very evident in Europe: added to the conditioning and body improvements he’s made at Illinois, he has established himself as a player who can be fairly productive in back to the basket situations, a solid passer and a very reliable floor-stretcher against American competition. There are still some important defensive and mobility concerns around him that won’t vanish, but his NBA Draft candidature is in a better spot than the one he would have had if he had stayed in Europe. So, for these players, a move to a league where their readiness and go-to skills can have an impact, is also a great way to revamp their stock. And no one cares how many years of eligibility Ivisic has because, after all, he has already found a key money window for his career in College Basketball.
We have already seen which are the names that have generated more buzz so far this year: Sananda Fru (2003), Elias Rapieque (2004), Harun Zrno (2004) or Jacob Patrick (2003) are hot names on the radar of many programs, and some others such as Davide Casarin (2003), Andrija Jelavic (2004) or Malick Kordel (2004) have also been gaining some traction, just to mention a few examples. There is a mix of reasons why some of them could have the next Tomislav Ivisic type of story, but for the majority of the players mentioned, we are talking about cases that will likely have the best money window of their career during the years their College cycle lasts if they end up heading in this direction. The reasons, impact and readiness, have been largely described already. At the end of the day, College Basketball has turned into an incredibly good release valve for European agents, who will avoid facing the need of placing some of their clients in teams that can’t guarantee them a good enough spot while they provide them a better economic situation and, because of the rules, they also get a better-looking compensation for the deal. Understanding the money window of the players will be a difference-making quality for people around them in the upcoming years, as well as it already is right now. For some others in the list, having the type of trajectory that names such as Matej Bosnjak, Fedor Zugic, Noah Bolanga or Marino Dubravcic can also be more than enough.
And this leads us to the last part of this article.
- What does the future hold for “true Freshmen”?
Entering College basketball as soon as you are eligible is just an option now. CBB is now a veteran competition led by ready-made players. Times have changed and players are not only exiting the league later, but in most of the cases they are also entering it later. High School recruitment is in a bad spot as of right now, aside of the most coveted stars with high-end NBA upside, because they can’t provide the experience and competitive guarantees that the league demands. This also affects the same-age European players: even though the level of basketball might be more demanding and competitive in the European youth system than in the US regular schedule, true Freshmen will still have a hard time placing themselves in the NCAA. Proven players will always be safer and more appealing.
Last year, most of the teams were thinking about how to stop the exodus of the talent that they developed in their systems with little-to-no reward. The team that played their cards in the best way was Real Madrid, that could pay for the buyout of a player for the first team with the money that they got for Egor Demin. Most of the teams weren’t able to understand the situation with enough margin and lost their players for small fees or for nothing. This Summer, things will be different for them: we can expect a fewer amount of true Freshmen heading to that type of program because the level of the true Freshmen group is worse than in the last two years and, also, because the programs will prefer signing readier contributors. It will be curious to see, given the short-term nature of most of the contracts in Europe, how it does translate in the income European teams get for those young players and, more importantly, how long it does take for them to build a contingency plan for the foreseeable situation. Maybe some of these clubs will feel the need to attach the 20-22 year-old players in longer contracts with them, because those are the ones that will be more targeted and, easily, they could leave them without a compensation.
As of right now, it looks like the 2025 class will be highlighted by bigs. Size is one of the qualities for which College programs are more willing to pay. Players such as Hannes Steinbach or Aleksa Dimitrijevic will be two of the first to announce their commitments to HM programs that will give them prominent roles and significant NIL. Bigs are the hardest players to get in the US. Regarding Guards, we will need to wait: the most logical thing would be that the money for Guards goes for proven players that are already in the Transfer Portal, given that the skills that programs look for when they build their teams are similar to the ones NBA guards -in general, American guards- have: burst, ISO scoring and shooting gravity. It’s harder to find this in Europe. This is, most likely, the position that will be most difficult to deal with, and likely we will see more cases of players who commit to levels below the one projected for them because of the lack of suitors.
So, and it will be a trend for the next years, we should expect that the commitment of players in their first year of College eligibility will take a lot longer than usual. This will make FIBA Summer Events -such as FIBA U18 Championship- a lot more important for players who can be last-minute recruits and will test the patience of agents, advisors and players regarding important things such as the enrollment process or eyeing how the start of the season approaches and the player doesn’t still have a commitment to a program while they rejected the proposals of European teams. In numerous instances, it will turn into an uncomfortable race against the clock, without forgetting that last-minute academic enrollments are tiring and risky.
College Basketball is not for everyone
That’s something that is essential to keep in mind for the times to come. The raise of College basketball has also increased the danger of sending a player to a wrong spot. Some agents and decision-makers close to the players are clueless about what they do, and they associate College Basketball to NIL. It’s common to see players who go to the wrong conference or play for coaches that have not seen them enough or just don’t mesh well with their identity because of the lack of knowledge of the entourage. While it’s true that for some players the best money window of their career will take place during the years of College eligibility, for many others it will be a dangerous way to put in risk the career of the player because of picking a wrong conference or doing a wrong evaluation on the needs of the player. We have already seen some cases like that in the last two years: players who could have been making a lot more money or even turn into Draft candidates in their first year if they had made the right decision, but ended up picking options that harmed their stock and also their best-case scenario projected income. As said at the start of the article, College Basketball usually isn’t a way to develop a basketball player. You play when you are ready, and you won’t step on the court if you are not a valuable contributor or if you don’t fit in the conference you are competing in.
The priority for an 18-22 year-old player has to be playing and being able to practice regularly. At least one of these two things will be hard to get from now on for the ones in the mentioned circumstances who enter the CBB circuit. Now more than ever, there is no need to play College basketball from the first year of eligibility, and obviously, it’s not necessary neither to have the entire four years available to head to the US. We could even say that, most of the time, given the yearly budgets, programs will prefer short-term deals instead of committing to a player in the big picture.
Maybe, as a player, your time to enter College Basketball is not as an 18-year-old player with plenty of room for improvement, but as one a bit older who has already worked on his body
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